SGX Tech & Communications Section: MWC Shanghai Observations on 6G and Satellite Large-Scale Networking Cost Reduction
The 2026 MWC Shanghai opened on schedule. Unlike last year’s surge of commercial 5G-A orders, this year’s venue had a more cautious, pragmatic mood. The newly independent “6G Industry Ecosystem Zone” and the “Future Constellation” satellite area were both popular, but the industry was more interested in figuring out when technology can generate real revenue.
Blue Whale Tech reporters found that on the 6G front, the three main paths—integrated sensing and communication, AI-native architecture, and space-air-ground integration—are now broadly accepted, and chipmakers have even started advance R&D and stocking. In satellite internet, the scramble for orbital and frequency resources is basically over, and large-scale networking plus cost reduction has become the new theme. Still, consensus stops at the technical layer: terminal makers and investors are largely staying put, with the former waiting for killer apps and the latter unable to pin down the payback period. Even profitable international satellite players are finding it hard to cultivate the early civilian market.
With the financial accounting for 5G investment still not fully settled, 6G and satellite internet are collectively entering a transition period in which the vision is clear but monetization is difficult. The technology paths are narrowing, while the business options are widening. Under real-world return constraints, the industry needs a more practical answer than a grand narrative.
6G Technology Paths Are Converging, but the Commercial Loop Is Still Being Built
Inside the 6G Industry Ecosystem area in Hall N3, five sections—the Beijing 6G Laboratory overview area, communications enhancement, integrated sensing and communication, communications-computing-intelligence integration, and space-air-ground integration—laid out the core 6G vision in a clear, tangible way. Staff told Blue Whale Tech that this is the first time MWC Shanghai has dedicated a hall specifically to 6G, sending a clear industry signal: 6G has moved from concept discussion into a critical stage of system validation.
“If last year people were still arguing about what 6G should do, this year the debate is about how to do it and what trade-offs to make,” a technician from the Beijing 6G Laboratory overview area told reporters. At present, the three main enhancement paths—integrated sensing and communication, AI-native architecture, and space-air-ground integration—have largely reached industry consensus, while key technologies such as terahertz communications and intelligent metasurfaces are entering prototype validation.
Upstream deployment is clearly accelerating. At this year’s show, Qualcomm presented an end-to-end 6G prototype system. GalaxySpace publicly unveiled its self-developed second-generation direct-to-phone phased-array antenna in the 6G Industry Ecosystem Zone, while vivo displayed its 6G research prototype and technology roadmap. According to reports, unlike Xiaomi, which focuses on underlying transmission algorithms, and OPPO, which focuses on communication-paradigm innovation, vivo’s display leaned more toward end-to-end systems and application rollout—it covered the full chain, including MR terminals, 6G terminal prototypes (UE), 6G base stations (RAN), and the core network.
An onsite lead from a domestic chip maker told reporters that the company’s internal 6G R&D team is now twice the size of last year’s. The logic is straightforward: if you wait until the standard is frozen to start, you’re already late, so technical reserves have to be built in advance.
Still, compared with the enthusiasm upstream, terminal makers were relatively cautious. When Blue Whale Tech reporters asked several handset brands about 6G terminal plans in the 6G zone, most replied that they were “closely watching,” and there were very few consumer 6G demos on the floor. In an informal exchange, a 6G R&D director at a global top-five smartphone maker said it is still hard to draw a clear commercial roadmap for 6G phones. The core issue is not a lack of technical capability, but that the path from user demand and use cases to terminal-side products is still under evaluation. In his view, the experience dividend of 5G has not yet been fully released, and 6G concepts such as immersive holography and multi-sensory experiences are still some distance from the mass consumer market.
Investors were equally cautious. During a break at the exhibition, Blue Whale Tech reporters met an early-stage investor focused on TMT. After watching several demos in the 6G zone, he said the technological direction was impressive, but from an investment perspective, 5G capital returns are still being digested, while 6G’s future R&D and network-deployment costs will be enormous. Exit timing and return expectations still lack enough data support. He admitted that, for now, the better approach is to keep tracking developments and wait for clearer commercial signals.
“Future Constellation”: The Layout Is Taking Shape, but the Profit Path Still Needs Proof
Unlike the 6G area, which centered on validating key technologies, the newly launched “Future Constellation” satellite zone showed a different pace: the orbital layout is already taking shape, and participants are moving into a phase of fine-tuned work on resources and costs.
Domestic low-orbit broadband and narrowband constellation operators such as Geespace, GEI, and Yuanxin Satellite, together with international players like Iridium, all set up sizable booths. Geespace showcased real terminals for scenarios such as ocean shipping and desert mining; GEI highlighted Tianqi Constellation IoT deployment cases; and Yuanxin Satellite engineers even connected live to show a video call test powered by the “Spacesail Constellation.”
“The fight for orbital and spectrum resources in satellite internet is basically over; the key now is large-scale deployment and cost control,” a GEI representative at the booth told Blue Whale Tech reporters. He said the batch-production cost of the company’s narrowband communication payloads is continuing to fall, but also noted that the user base for satellite internet services has not yet reached break-even. For at least the next few years, government and industry orders will remain the core revenue base.
Terminal cost is another link worth watching in the path to profitability. At antenna and module makers’ booths, Blue Whale Tech reporters discussed satellite communications terminal bill-of-materials costs. Interviewees generally said costs are falling quickly and are now low enough to be integrated into mainstream handset designs, but most companies declined to disclose exact figures.
An Iridium business manager told reporters that the company has already achieved positive cash flow by relying on narrowband voice and low-speed data services, but its traditional market is nearing saturation. The next round of growth will need to come from IoT and emergency communications. By contrast, domestic low-orbit broadband constellations are still in a scale-first catch-up phase, and reaching break-even will take time and user buildup.
