US Tech Rebound Eases Liquidity Concerns, Hang Seng Index Fluctuates Narrowly Near 30,000
After last week's sharp volatility, all three major US indices closed higher overnight, with previously hard-hit semiconductor and AI sectors staging a technical rebound, injecting stable expectations into Asia-Pacific markets. As of the morning of August 4, 2026, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures extended slight gains, signaling a return of risk appetite. For the Hong Kong market, the temporary stabilization of the external environment has removed the systemic risk of a large gap-down opening. The Hang Seng Index closed at 29,980 points yesterday, just one step away from the 30,000-point psychological level. Technically, the HSI has found strong support near 29,500 recently, but the 200-day moving average resistance around 30,200 remains significant. In early trading today, the market is likely to continue its tug-of-war, with focus shifting back to sector fundamentals and capital flow dynamics.
Southbound Capital Shift: From High-Dividend Defensives to AI and Healthcare Growth
Southbound capital flows via Stock Connect have always been a barometer of short-term market sentiment. After weeks of concentrated pursuit of high-dividend state-owned enterprise sectors, the latest capital monitoring data shows that southbound funds are quietly changing direction. Yesterday, net southbound buying via Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect totaled approximately HK$3.2 billion. While the absolute amount did not hit a new high, the capital structure underwent significant changes. Traditional high-dividend telecom stocks and some mainland bank stocks showed signs of profit-taking, while funds began to redeploy into two main themes: Hong Kong-listed tech leaders centered on AI computing power, and the healthcare sector, which had been previously suppressed by centralized procurement policies but is now showing marginal improvement signals.
Specifically, in AI computing power, despite overnight volatility in Broadcom's stock after its earnings release, this did not hinder mainland capital's enthusiasm for allocating to related computing infrastructure targets in Hong Kong. Market analysis suggests that as the commercialization of domestic large language models accelerates, demand for computing power is growing exponentially, making Hong Kong-listed computing power concept stocks with scarcity value a new focus for southbound capital. In healthcare, some biotech companies recently reported better-than-expected Q2 operating data, coupled with market expectations that the new round of national medical insurance negotiations will be more rational and moderate, creating momentum for valuation repair in the previously oversold pharmaceutical sector. The increased allocation to these two sectors reflects a market style transition from pure 'risk-off yield seeking' to a dual-driver of 'growth and valuation repair'.
Sector Rotation Accelerates: AI Computing Power Leads, Mainland Property Stocks Diverge After Oversold Bounce
From a market hotspot perspective, sector rotation in Hong Kong has noticeably accelerated. Mainland property stocks, which performed strongly yesterday, showed divergence after their oversold bounce. Although some cities have further relaxed purchase restrictions, the market remains concerned about developers' liquidity crises. Capital is more inclined to flow towards leading state-backed developers with strong solvency, while some private developers with complex debt structures are under pressure again. This indicates that a simple oversold bounce is unlikely to evolve into a trend reversal, and fundamentals remain the touchstone for long-term capital commitment.
In contrast, the tech sector's linkage effect is more pronounced. As market expectations for the commercialization of AI application layers heat up, Hong Kong-listed stocks related to SaaS services, cloud computing, and AI+healthcare are active. Additionally, while the consumer electronics sector was affected by the divergent performance of individual US tech giants, the automotive electronics and smart wearable device sub-sectors in Hong Kong bucked the trend and attracted capital attention. Technical analysis shows that after the late July correction, the Hang Seng TECH Index's MACD indicator is about to form a golden cross, potentially testing the 4,700 resistance level in the short term. For morning strategy, investors should be wary of chasing property stocks higher and instead focus on the just-emerging AI application and healthcare recovery themes with fundamental support.
Risk Warnings and Morning Trading Strategy
Although the US rebound has created a favorable external environment for the Hong Kong morning session, investors still need to be vigilant about several potential risks. First, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's previous hawkish remarks continue to constrain global liquidity, with the US dollar index still oscillating at high levels, indirectly constraining emerging market currencies including the Hong Kong dollar. Second, geopolitical uncertainty remains a sword of Damocles hanging over the market, and commodity price fluctuations could transmit to equities at any time. Furthermore, the 30,000-point level for the Hang Seng Index is not only a psychological resistance level but also a previous area of heavy trading volume; without a clear breakout on strong volume, it could easily trigger profit-taking selling pressure.
In summary, the recommended morning strategy today is to adopt a 'light on the index, heavy on structure' approach. Investors already holding high-dividend targets may consider taking some profits during rallies to lock in gains. For those with no or light positions, it is not advisable to blindly chase prices during the opening call auction; instead, they can wait for intraday pullbacks to gradually build positions in the aforementioned AI computing power core targets with clear capital inflows and leading healthcare sub-sectors with positive earnings expectations. Key observation should be on the volume coordination of the Hang Seng Index between 9:30 AM and 10:30 AM. If the first-hour turnover exceeds HK$50 billion and the index firmly holds above 30,000 points, the market may continue to challenge the 200-day moving average; otherwise, one should be wary of a rally failure and maintain a defensive posture within the range-bound oscillation.
